Caroline County, Virginia: commercial real estate data.
Caroline County, Virginia had an estimated 33,477 residents on July 1, 2024, up 8.4 percent since the 2020 census base of 30,887, across 528 square miles. County output reached $1.26 bn in 2024, 424 establishments operate here, and the SBA record carries 20 7(a) approvals worth $14.7 m since FY2020.
Underlined figures are computed by MMCG Analytics, not published by the agency.
Caroline County
How many people live in Caroline County
- Population, American Community Survey 2020-202432,098
- Households11,988
- Average household size2.68
- Median household income$87,407
- Median age38.9
- Median gross rent$1,293 per month
- Median owner-occupied home value$307,700
- Home value to household income3.5 times
- Annual rent as a share of median income17.8 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a bachelor degree or higher21.9 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a graduate degree8.1 percent
- Adults 25 and over22,716
- Population under 187,275
- Share under 1822.7 percent
- Population 65 and over5,354
- Share 65 and over16.7 percent
- Working age population, 18 to 6419,469
- Civilian labor force16,791
- Unemployment rate5.3 percent
- Labor force participation, adults 18 and over67.6 percent
- Rank by population among Virginia counties55th of 133
- Rank by population among US county-equivalents, Puerto Rico included1419th of 3,222
Caroline County is the 55th largest of 133 Virginia counties by population. A median home costs 3.5 times median household income, which is moderately unaffordable by national standards. Residents under 18 outnumber those 65 and over, at 22.7 percent against 16.7 percent, a household formation profile rather than a retirement one.
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Caroline County
Is Caroline County's population growing?
- Population, July 1, 202433,477
- Census 2020 base population30,887
- Population change since the 2020 census base8.39 percent
- Population change, 2023 to 2024772
- Births, 2024341
- Deaths, 2024327
- Natural change, 202414
- Net domestic migration, 2024695
- Net international migration, 202465
- Total net migration, 2024760
- Cumulative net domestic migration, 2021 to 20242,377
- Rank by growth among US county-equivalents214th of 3,144
The county has grown 8.39 percent since the 2020 census base. The population grew in 2024 from both sources: births exceeded deaths and more people moved in than left.
US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
Caroline County
Where are people moving to Caroline County from?
- Tax returns filed by households arriving1,308
- People arriving, from those returns2,447
- Tax returns filed by households leaving1,020
- Net household movement288
- Adjusted gross income arriving$85.0 m
- Net adjusted gross income movement$25.3 m
- Average income of an arriving household$65,009
- Average income of a leaving household$58,562
- Largest single originSpotsylvania County (335 households)
- Largest single destinationSpotsylvania County (212 households)
| Origin | Households | People | Adjusted gross income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spotsylvania County | 335 | 649 | $20.6 m |
| Stafford County | 139 | 295 | $8.8 m |
| Hanover County | 72 | 133 | $4.1 m |
| Fredericksburg city | 68 | 120 | $3.6 m |
| Prince William County | 61 | 131 | $3.7 m |
| Henrico County | 60 | 119 | $2.8 m |
| Fairfax County | 33 | 53 | $3.1 m |
| King George County | 31 | 54 | $1.4 m |
Households arriving report $6,447 more average income than households leaving, so the migration is raising local spending power rather than just moving it around. The largest single source of arrivals is Spotsylvania County, which is the catchment a retail or multifamily study should look at first.
US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Caroline County
What is the Caroline County economy?
- County GDP, 2024$1.26 bn
- County GDP, 2023$1.15 bn
- GDP change, 2023 to 20249.8 percent
- GDP change over five years49.3 percent
- Rank by GDP among the Virginia areas BEA publishes60th of 105
- Rank by GDP among the US county areas BEA publishes1653rd of 3,127
- GDP per resident$39,356
Output grew 9.8 percent in the latest year and 49.3 percent over five, which is the trend line a lender will read behind any single year figure.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional, table CAGDP2, CAGDP2, through 2024.
Caroline County
Employment by industry in Caroline County
- Covered employment, annual average6,591
- Establishments reporting754
- Average annual pay$48,154
- Average weekly wage$926
- Administrative and support and waste management services, employment960
- Administrative and support and waste management services, average annual pay$32,157
- Retail trade, employment663
- Retail trade, average annual pay$30,039
- Accommodation and food services, employment458
- Accommodation and food services, average annual pay$25,455
- Wholesale trade, employment376
- Wholesale trade, average annual pay$55,312
- Construction, employment318
- Manufacturing, employment307
| Sector | Employment | Establishments | Average annual pay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Administrative and support and waste management services | 960 | 44 | $32,157 |
| Retail trade | 663 | 61 | $30,039 |
| Accommodation and food services | 458 | 41 | $25,455 |
| Wholesale trade | 376 | 16 | $55,312 |
| Construction | 318 | 67 | $63,368 |
| Manufacturing | 307 | 17 | $63,328 |
| Other services, except public administration | 295 | 54 | $33,144 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 286 | 32 | $55,594 |
Administrative and support and waste management services is the largest private sector at 960 jobs, 14.6 percent of covered employment.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
Caroline County
How many businesses are in Caroline County?
- Establishments, all industries424
- Employment at those establishments4,315
- Annual payroll$195.3 m
- Establishments per 1,000 residents13.2
These are counts of establishments physically operating in the county, not listings, so they are the supply side a feasibility study measures demand against. County Business Patterns counts private establishments with paid employees in March 2023, while the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages above counts every unemployment-insured employer, public ones included, as a 2024 annual average, so the two establishment and employment counts differ.
US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Caroline County
Building permits in Caroline County
- Housing units authorized by permit, 2024318
- Declared construction value permitted$76.7 m
- Single family units authorized318
- Multifamily units authorized0
- Multifamily share of units0.0 percent
- Average declared value per unit$241,106
- Units authorized per 1,000 households26.5
Single-family homes are 100.0 percent of units authorized, so the pipeline is predominantly single-family.
US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
Caroline County
SBA loans in Caroline County (7(a) and 504)
- 7(a) approvals recorded20
- 7(a) gross approval dollars$14.7 m
- Average 7(a) approval$736,320
- Median 7(a) approval$412,000
- 10th percentile approval$15,000
- 90th percentile approval$2,311,140
- Largest single approval$3,150,000
- Jobs reported supported, 7(a)164
- Jobs per approval8.2
- Distinct 7(a) lenders active13
- Distinct industries receiving approvals13
- Median 7(a) term120 months
- Share of loans on real estate terms, 240 months or longer35.0 percent
- Loans on real estate terms7
- Loans on working capital terms, 120 months or shorter12
- Franchise loans3
- Franchise share of approvals15.0 percent
- 504 approvals recorded6
- 504 gross approval dollars$7.6 m
- Average 504 approval$1,273,667
- Median 504 approval$451,000
- Distinct CDCs active2
- 504 jobs per approval11.5
- 504 jobs per million dollars approved9.0
- Most active CDCRappahannock Economic Development Corporation (4)
- Combined SBA approval dollars, 7(a) FY2020 to FY2026 and 504 FY2010 to FY2026$22.4 m
The average approval of $736,320 sits well above the median of $412,000, pulled up by a few larger deals, so the median is the better guide to what a typical borrower here gets. 35.0 percent of approvals run on real estate terms of 240 months or more, so this is a market where SBA credit is buying buildings, not just funding operations.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30. US Small Business Administration, 504 FOIA release, FY2010 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Caroline County
SBA loan default and charge-off rates in Caroline County
Do SBA loans in Caroline County get paid back?
- Loans with a final outcome recorded3
- Paid in full3
- Charged off0
- Status: Cancelled3
- Status: Paid in full3
- Status: Exempt from disclosure12
- Status: Committed, not yet disbursed2
Only 3 loans have reached a final outcome, fewer than the 30 a charge-off rate needs, so no rate is published.
Compare against the national and state SBA charge-off rates, computed the same way over resolved loans only.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Caroline County
SBA lending by place in Caroline County
- Borrower cities with recorded lending5
- Ruther Glen, approvals12
- Milford, approvals3
- Bowling Green, approvals2
- Fredericksburg, approvals2
- Beaverdam, approvals1
| Borrower city | Approvals | Gross approval dollars |
|---|---|---|
| Ruther Glen | 12 | $9,117,600 |
| Milford | 3 | $3,263,800 |
| Bowling Green | 2 | $1,680,000 |
| Fredericksburg | 2 | $240,000 |
| Beaverdam | 1 | $425,000 |
Ruther Glen accounts for 12 approvals against 3 in Milford. County level figures average over that gap, which is why a site decision is made at the submarket rather than the county.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Caroline County
How large is Caroline County?
- Land area528 sq mi
- Rank by land area among Virginia counties18th of 133
- Width, east to west31.2 mi
- Height, north to south32.6 mi
- Geographies sharing a boundary7
- Residents per square mile of land61
- Establishments per square mile0.80
US Census Bureau county boundary geometry, TIGER, adjacency computed from shared boundary vertices, TIGER county boundaries. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year. US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Caroline County
Flood risk in Caroline County
- Participation of the county's own NFIP community Caroline County, unincorporated areasParticipating, community 510249
- Communities in the county in the NFIP Community Status Book2
- Of those, participating in the NFIP2
- NFIP participation rate100.0 percent
- Communities carrying a CRS class0
- Radon levels in Caroline County, EPA zone predicted average indoor radon screening level less than 2 pCi/LZone 3
The county's own community in the status book, unincorporated Caroline County (community 510249), participates in the National Flood Insurance Program and carries no Community Rating System class, so no CRS premium discount applies there. The EPA places Caroline County in radon zone 3, a predicted average indoor radon screening level less than 2 pCi/L. The zone is a screening prediction for the county and does not substitute for a test at an address. 100.0 percent of the county's listed communities participate in the National Flood Insurance Program, per Federal Emergency Management Agency, NFIP Community Status Book (OpenFEMA), as of 2026-09-26.
Federal Emergency Management Agency, NFIP Community Status Book (OpenFEMA), as of 2026-09-26. US EPA, Map of Radon Zones, county spreadsheet, 2024-05 publication, EPA 402/A-16/001.
Coverage
What this page does not hold.
Traffic counts, zoning and the flood zone at an address are not on this page; they resolve at the address in the platform. How this page was built →
Feasibility studies
When a Caroline County site needs a document a lender will accept.
The same data layer behind this page is the one the studies are written from. A study for a Caroline County site starts with the figures you are reading, carrying the same source and period into the credit file.
- Population, American Community Survey 2020-202432,098
- Households11,988
- Average household size2.68
- Median household income$87,407
- Median age38.9
Common questions
Caroline County questions, answered from the record.
How many people live in Caroline County, Virginia?
The Census Bureau estimates 33,477 residents on July 1, 2024 (US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024). The American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimate is 32,098, in 11,988 households, ranking 55th of 133 Virginia counties. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Is Caroline County's population growing?
The population has grown 8.39 percent since the 2020 census base of 30,887, to 33,477 on July 1, 2024. In 2024 there were 341 births against 327 deaths, with net migration of 760. Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
What is the median household income in Caroline County?
$87,407. The median owner-occupied home is valued at $307,700, which is 3.5 times income, and median gross rent is $1,293 per month. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
How many businesses are in Caroline County?
424 establishments, employing 4,315 people with an annual payroll of $195.3 m. These are establishments physically operating in the county, not listings. Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
What is employment by industry in Caroline County?
Administrative and support and waste management services is the largest private sector at 960 jobs, 14.6 percent of covered employment. Covered employment averages 6,591 jobs at an average annual pay of $48,154, or $926 a week. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
How much SBA lending happens in Caroline County?
20 7(a) approvals totaling $14.7 m since FY2020, across 13 lenders, with a median approval of $412,000, plus 6 504 approvals worth $7.6 m since FY2010. These are approvals recorded in the release, not loans disbursed.
How many building permits were issued in Caroline County?
318 housing units were authorized by permit in 2024, with a declared construction value of $76.7 m. Multifamily was 0.0 percent of units. Source: US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
What is the radon zone for Caroline County?
Zone 3, a predicted average indoor radon screening level less than 2 pCi/L. Source: US EPA, Map of Radon Zones, county spreadsheet, 2024-05 publication, EPA 402/A-16/001.
Where do people moving to Caroline County come from?
The largest single origin is Spotsylvania County, with 335 households. Arriving households report an average income of $65,009 against $58,562 for those leaving. Source: US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Are traffic counts available for Caroline County on this page?
No. Annual average daily traffic resolves in the platform rather than in this dataset, so no AADT figure is printed here. It is a gap we know about rather than a figure we estimated.
Is zoning published for Caroline County?
No. Nothing on this page presents parcel level zoning, and where a statutory framework applies it is marked as the statewide frame, to be confirmed locally.
Caroline County
Cities and places in Caroline.
4 Census places lie wholly or partly in Caroline County. All 4 carry enough published place level data for a page of their own and are linked.
| Place | Type | Population | SBA 7(a) approvals, projects in this county | Lies in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Land'Or | CDP | 4,390 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
| Lake Caroline | CDP | 2,862 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
| Bowling Green | town | 1,561 | 2 | Wholly in this county |
| Port Royal | town | 89 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
A further 18 of the county's 20 SBA 7(a) approvals are to borrowers in cities that match no Census place in Caroline County, the largest being Ruther Glen (12), Milford (3), Fredericksburg (2). Those are postal cities, unincorporated areas and cities outside the county, so no place row claims them; they are counted in the county total above.