Warren County, Kentucky: commercial real estate data.
Warren County, Kentucky had an estimated 147,936 residents on July 1, 2024, up 9.9 percent since the 2020 census base of 134,561, across 542 square miles. County output reached $11.13 bn in 2024, 3,076 establishments operate here, and the SBA record carries 103 7(a) approvals worth $40.0 m since FY2020.
Underlined figures are computed by MMCG Analytics, not published by the agency.
Warren County
How many people live in Warren County
- Population, American Community Survey 2020-2024140,918
- Households55,643
- Average household size2.53
- Median household income$65,794
- Median age33.3
- Median gross rent$1,002 per month
- Median owner-occupied home value$258,000
- Home value to household income3.9 times
- Annual rent as a share of median income18.3 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a bachelor degree or higher32.3 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a graduate degree12.6 percent
- Adults 25 and over86,583
- Population under 1833,379
- Share under 1823.7 percent
- Population 65 and over18,620
- Share 65 and over13.2 percent
- Working age population, 18 to 6488,919
- Civilian labor force73,294
- Unemployment rate4.4 percent
- Labor force participation, adults 18 and over68.2 percent
- Rank by population among Kentucky counties4th of 120
- Rank by population among US county-equivalents, Puerto Rico included476th of 3,222
Warren County is the 4th largest of 120 Kentucky counties by population. A median home costs 3.9 times median household income, which is moderately unaffordable by national standards. Residents under 18 outnumber those 65 and over, at 23.7 percent against 13.2 percent, a household formation profile rather than a retirement one.
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Warren County
Is Warren County's population growing?
- Population, July 1, 2024147,936
- Census 2020 base population134,561
- Population change since the 2020 census base9.94 percent
- Population change, 2023 to 20244,007
- Births, 20241,944
- Deaths, 20241,224
- Natural change, 2024720
- Net domestic migration, 20241,093
- Net international migration, 20242,190
- Total net migration, 20243,283
- Cumulative net domestic migration, 2021 to 20245,432
- Rank by growth among US county-equivalents149th of 3,144
The county has grown 9.94 percent since the 2020 census base. The population grew in 2024 from both sources: births exceeded deaths and more people moved in than left.
US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
Warren County
Where are people moving to Warren County from?
- Tax returns filed by households arriving3,709
- People arriving, from those returns6,627
- Tax returns filed by households leaving3,456
- Net household movement253
- Adjusted gross income arriving$184.8 m
- Net adjusted gross income movement$-194,000
- Average income of an arriving household$49,825
- Average income of a leaving household$53,529
- Largest single originBarren County (204 households)
- Largest single destinationBarren County (213 households)
| Origin | Households | People | Adjusted gross income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barren County | 204 | 345 | $7.7 m |
| Simpson County | 170 | 318 | $6.5 m |
| Logan County | 160 | 325 | $6.8 m |
| Allen County | 138 | 264 | $6.4 m |
| Davidson County | 125 | 185 | $6.3 m |
| Sumner County | 124 | 222 | $6.0 m |
| Jefferson County | 112 | 155 | $4.7 m |
| Edmonson County | 107 | 233 | $5.2 m |
Households arriving report $3,704 less average income than households leaving, which drains spending power even where headcount holds up. The largest single source of arrivals is Barren County, which is the catchment a retail or multifamily study should look at first.
US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Warren County
What is the Warren County economy?
- County GDP, 2024$11.13 bn
- County GDP, 2023$10.30 bn
- GDP change, 2023 to 20248.0 percent
- GDP change over five years50.6 percent
- Rank by GDP among the Kentucky areas BEA publishes5th of 120
- Rank by GDP among the US county areas BEA publishes406th of 3,127
- GDP per resident$78,989
Output grew 8.0 percent in the latest year and 50.6 percent over five, which is the trend line a lender will read behind any single year figure.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional, table CAGDP2, CAGDP2, through 2024.
Warren County
Employment by industry in Warren County
- Covered employment, annual average70,761
- Establishments reporting5,308
- Average annual pay$55,488
- Average weekly wage$1,067
- Manufacturing, employment12,281
- Manufacturing, average annual pay$74,797
- Health care and social assistance, employment10,398
- Health care and social assistance, average annual pay$55,296
- Retail trade, employment8,494
- Retail trade, average annual pay$36,534
- Accommodation and food services, employment7,582
- Accommodation and food services, average annual pay$23,326
- Construction, employment3,643
- Administrative and support and waste management services, employment3,604
| Sector | Employment | Establishments | Average annual pay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 12,281 | 221 | $74,797 |
| Health care and social assistance | 10,398 | 1,066 | $55,296 |
| Retail trade | 8,494 | 603 | $36,534 |
| Accommodation and food services | 7,582 | 351 | $23,326 |
| Construction | 3,643 | 390 | $70,053 |
| Administrative and support and waste management services | 3,604 | 316 | $40,452 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 2,409 | 652 | $68,320 |
| Management of companies and enterprises | 2,051 | 39 | $103,188 |
Manufacturing is the largest private sector at 12,281 jobs, 17.4 percent of covered employment.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
Warren County
How many businesses are in Warren County?
- Establishments, all industries3,076
- Employment at those establishments59,803
- Annual payroll$3.06 bn
- Establishments per 1,000 residents21.8
These are counts of establishments physically operating in the county, not listings, so they are the supply side a feasibility study measures demand against. County Business Patterns counts private establishments with paid employees in March 2023, while the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages above counts every unemployment-insured employer, public ones included, as a 2024 annual average, so the two establishment and employment counts differ.
US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Warren County
Building permits in Warren County
- Housing units authorized by permit, 20242,286
- Declared construction value permitted$405.7 m
- Single family units authorized791
- Multifamily units authorized1,495
- Multifamily share of units65.4 percent
- Average declared value per unit$177,484
- Units authorized per 1,000 households41.1
Multifamily is 65.4 percent of units authorized, so the pipeline is being built for renters rather than buyers.
US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
Warren County
SBA loans in Warren County (7(a) and 504)
- 7(a) approvals recorded103
- 7(a) gross approval dollars$40.0 m
- Average 7(a) approval$388,253
- Median 7(a) approval$150,000
- 10th percentile approval$20,400
- 90th percentile approval$986,240
- Largest single approval$4,250,000
- Jobs reported supported, 7(a)961
- Jobs per approval9.3
- Distinct 7(a) lenders active28
- Distinct industries receiving approvals64
- Median 7(a) term120 months
- Share of loans on real estate terms, 240 months or longer12.6 percent
- Loans on real estate terms13
- Loans on working capital terms, 120 months or shorter87
- Franchise loans14
- Franchise share of approvals13.6 percent
- Leading industry by approval countFitness and Recreational Sports Centers (8)
- Most active lenderFirst Financial Bank, National Association (14)
- 504 approvals recorded11
- 504 gross approval dollars$10.2 m
- Average 504 approval$931,091
- Median 504 approval$769,000
- Distinct CDCs active2
- 504 jobs per approval16.4
- 504 jobs per million dollars approved17.6
- Most active CDCCapital Access Corporation - Kentucky (7)
- Combined SBA approval dollars, 7(a) FY2020 to FY2026 and 504 FY2010 to FY2026$50.2 m
The average approval of $388,253 sits well above the median of $150,000, pulled up by a few larger deals, so the median is the better guide to what a typical borrower here gets. Only 12.6 percent of approvals run on real estate terms, so SBA credit here is mostly working capital and equipment rather than property acquisition.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30. US Small Business Administration, 504 FOIA release, FY2010 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Warren County
SBA loan default and charge-off rates in Warren County
Do SBA loans in Warren County get paid back?
- Loans with a final outcome recorded21
- Paid in full20
- Charged off1
- Status: Paid in full20
- Status: Cancelled18
- Status: Exempt from disclosure59
- Status: Charged off1
- Status: Committed, not yet disbursed5
Only 21 loans have reached a final outcome, fewer than the 30 a charge-off rate needs, so no rate is published.
Compare against the national and state SBA charge-off rates, computed the same way over resolved loans only.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Warren County
SBA lending by place in Warren County
- Borrower cities with recorded lending4
- Bowling Green, approvals96
- Smiths Grove, approvals4
- Rockfield, approvals2
- Alvaton, approvals1
| Borrower city | Approvals | Gross approval dollars |
|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | 96 | $38,723,400 |
| Smiths Grove | 4 | $1,164,700 |
| Rockfield | 2 | $85,000 |
| Alvaton | 1 | $17,000 |
Bowling Green accounts for 96 approvals against 4 in Smiths Grove. County level figures average over that gap, which is why a site decision is made at the submarket rather than the county.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Warren County
How large is Warren County?
- Land area542 sq mi
- Rank by land area among Kentucky counties10th of 120
- Width, east to west31 mi
- Height, north to south28.2 mi
- Geographies sharing a boundary6
- Residents per square mile of land260
- Establishments per square mile5.68
US Census Bureau county boundary geometry, TIGER, adjacency computed from shared boundary vertices, TIGER county boundaries. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year. US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Warren County
Flood risk in Warren County
- Participation of the county's own NFIP community Warren County, unincorporated areasParticipating, community 210312
- Community Rating System class of the county's own communityClass 7
- Communities in the county in the NFIP Community Status Book2
- Of those, participating in the NFIP2
- NFIP participation rate100.0 percent
- Best Community Rating System class in the county A lower CRS class is a larger flood insurance premium discount.Class 7
- Communities carrying a CRS class2
- Radon levels in Warren County, EPA zone predicted average indoor radon screening level greater than 4 pCi/LZone 1
The county's own community in the status book, unincorporated Warren County (community 210312), participates in the National Flood Insurance Program and carries Community Rating System class 7, a flood insurance premium discount for policies written there. The EPA places Warren County in radon zone 1, a predicted average indoor radon screening level greater than 4 pCi/L. The zone is a screening prediction for the county and does not substitute for a test at an address. The best Community Rating System class among the county's communities is 7, which carries a flood insurance premium discount for policies written in that community. 100.0 percent of the county's listed communities participate in the National Flood Insurance Program, per Federal Emergency Management Agency, NFIP Community Status Book (OpenFEMA), as of 2026-09-26.
Federal Emergency Management Agency, NFIP Community Status Book (OpenFEMA), as of 2026-09-26. US EPA, Map of Radon Zones, county spreadsheet, 2024-05 publication, EPA 402/A-16/001.
Coverage
What this page does not hold.
Traffic counts, zoning and the flood zone at an address are not on this page; they resolve at the address in the platform. How this page was built →
Feasibility studies
When a Warren County site needs a document a lender will accept.
The same data layer behind this page is the one the studies are written from. A study for a Warren County site starts with the figures you are reading, carrying the same source and period into the credit file.
- Population, American Community Survey 2020-2024140,918
- Households55,643
- Average household size2.53
- Median household income$65,794
- Median age33.3
Common questions
Warren County questions, answered from the record.
How many people live in Warren County, Kentucky?
The Census Bureau estimates 147,936 residents on July 1, 2024 (US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024). The American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimate is 140,918, in 55,643 households, ranking 4th of 120 Kentucky counties. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Is Warren County's population growing?
The population has grown 9.94 percent since the 2020 census base of 134,561, to 147,936 on July 1, 2024. In 2024 there were 1,944 births against 1,224 deaths, with net migration of 3,283. Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
What is the median household income in Warren County?
$65,794. The median owner-occupied home is valued at $258,000, which is 3.9 times income, and median gross rent is $1,002 per month. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
How many businesses are in Warren County?
3,076 establishments, employing 59,803 people with an annual payroll of $3.06 bn. These are establishments physically operating in the county, not listings. Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
What is employment by industry in Warren County?
Manufacturing is the largest private sector at 12,281 jobs, 17.4 percent of covered employment. Covered employment averages 70,761 jobs at an average annual pay of $55,488, or $1,067 a week. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
How much SBA lending happens in Warren County?
103 7(a) approvals totaling $40.0 m since FY2020, across 28 lenders, with a median approval of $150,000, plus 11 504 approvals worth $10.2 m since FY2010. These are approvals recorded in the release, not loans disbursed.
How many building permits were issued in Warren County?
2,286 housing units were authorized by permit in 2024, with a declared construction value of $405.7 m. Multifamily was 65.4 percent of units. Source: US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
What is the radon zone for Warren County?
Zone 1, a predicted average indoor radon screening level greater than 4 pCi/L. Source: US EPA, Map of Radon Zones, county spreadsheet, 2024-05 publication, EPA 402/A-16/001.
Where do people moving to Warren County come from?
The largest single origin is Barren County, with 204 households. Arriving households report an average income of $49,825 against $53,529 for those leaving. Source: US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Are traffic counts available for Warren County on this page?
No. Annual average daily traffic resolves in the platform rather than in this dataset, so no AADT figure is printed here. It is a gap we know about rather than a figure we estimated.
Is zoning published for Warren County?
No. Nothing on this page presents parcel level zoning, and where a statutory framework applies it is marked as the statewide frame, to be confirmed locally.
Warren County
Cities and places in Warren.
6 Census places lie wholly or partly in Warren County. All 6 carry enough published place level data for a page of their own and are linked.
| Place | Type | Population | SBA 7(a) approvals, projects in this county | Lies in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | city | 75,388 | 96 | Wholly in this county |
| Plano | CDP | 1,290 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
| Smiths Grove | city | 786 | 4 | Wholly in this county |
| Plum Springs | city | 405 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
| Woodburn | city | 319 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
| Oakland | city | 280 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
A further 3 of the county's 103 SBA 7(a) approvals are to borrowers in cities that match no Census place in Warren County, the largest being Rockfield (2), Alvaton (1). Those are postal cities, unincorporated areas and cities outside the county, so no place row claims them; they are counted in the county total above.
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