Warren County, Virginia: commercial real estate data.
Warren County, Virginia had an estimated 42,461 residents on July 1, 2024, up 4.3 percent since the 2020 census base of 40,724, across 213 square miles. County output reached $2.56 bn in 2024, 882 establishments operate here, and the SBA record carries 18 7(a) approvals worth $15.0 m since FY2020.
Underlined figures are computed by MMCG Analytics, not published by the agency.
Warren County
How many people live in Warren County
- Population, American Community Survey 2020-202441,531
- Households15,339
- Average household size2.71
- Median household income$84,682
- Median age40.5
- Median gross rent$1,199 per month
- Median owner-occupied home value$348,400
- Home value to household income4.1 times
- Annual rent as a share of median income17.0 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a bachelor degree or higher25.0 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a graduate degree9.7 percent
- Adults 25 and over29,321
- Population under 188,970
- Share under 1821.6 percent
- Population 65 and over7,161
- Share 65 and over17.2 percent
- Working age population, 18 to 6425,400
- Civilian labor force20,775
- Unemployment rate4.9 percent
- Labor force participation, adults 18 and over63.8 percent
- Rank by population among Virginia counties43rd of 133
- Rank by population among US county-equivalents, Puerto Rico included1177th of 3,222
Warren County is the 43rd largest of 133 Virginia counties by population. A median home costs 4.1 times median household income, which is seriously unaffordable by national standards. Residents under 18 outnumber those 65 and over, at 21.6 percent against 17.2 percent, a household formation profile rather than a retirement one.
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Warren County
Is Warren County's population growing?
- Population, July 1, 202442,461
- Census 2020 base population40,724
- Population change since the 2020 census base4.27 percent
- Population change, 2023 to 2024479
- Births, 2024488
- Deaths, 2024490
- Natural change, 2024-2
- Net domestic migration, 2024299
- Net international migration, 2024182
- Total net migration, 2024481
- Cumulative net domestic migration, 2021 to 20241,235
- Rank by growth among US county-equivalents645th of 3,144
The county has grown 4.27 percent since the 2020 census base. Deaths exceeded births in 2024 and the population still grew, so all of the growth came from people moving in. A market held up by migration is more sensitive to a change in relative cost than one growing from household formation.
US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
Warren County
Where are people moving to Warren County from?
- Tax returns filed by households arriving1,477
- People arriving, from those returns2,699
- Tax returns filed by households leaving1,354
- Net household movement123
- Adjusted gross income arriving$105.9 m
- Net adjusted gross income movement$18.3 m
- Average income of an arriving household$71,722
- Average income of a leaving household$64,696
- Largest single originFairfax County (168 households)
- Largest single destinationFrederick County (170 households)
| Origin | Households | People | Adjusted gross income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax County | 168 | 292 | $14.4 m |
| Prince William County | 144 | 246 | $9.6 m |
| Frederick County | 124 | 217 | $7.4 m |
| Shenandoah County | 92 | 176 | $4.3 m |
| Loudoun County | 86 | 156 | $9.5 m |
| Fauquier County | 70 | 141 | $4.7 m |
| Winchester city | 41 | 60 | $1.8 m |
| Manassas city | 29 | 61 | $1.5 m |
Households arriving report $7,026 more average income than households leaving, so the migration is raising local spending power rather than just moving it around. The largest single source of arrivals is Fairfax County, which is the catchment a retail or multifamily study should look at first.
US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Warren County
What is the Warren County economy?
- County GDP, 2024$2.56 bn
- County GDP, 2023$2.53 bn
- GDP change, 2023 to 20241.0 percent
- GDP change over five years35.8 percent
- Rank by GDP among the Virginia areas BEA publishes40th of 105
- Rank by GDP among the US county areas BEA publishes1092nd of 3,127
- GDP per resident$61,573
Output grew 1.0 percent in the latest year and 35.8 percent over five, which is the trend line a lender will read behind any single year figure.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional, table CAGDP2, CAGDP2, through 2024.
Warren County
Employment by industry in Warren County
- Covered employment, annual average13,387
- Establishments reporting1,178
- Average annual pay$52,768
- Average weekly wage$1,015
- Retail trade, employment1,681
- Retail trade, average annual pay$34,137
- Health care and social assistance, employment1,479
- Health care and social assistance, average annual pay$56,311
- Accommodation and food services, employment1,467
- Accommodation and food services, average annual pay$25,165
- Manufacturing, employment1,383
- Manufacturing, average annual pay$72,301
- Transportation and warehousing, employment1,233
- Educational services, employment766
| Sector | Employment | Establishments | Average annual pay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade | 1,681 | 122 | $34,137 |
| Health care and social assistance | 1,479 | 265 | $56,311 |
| Accommodation and food services | 1,467 | 82 | $25,165 |
| Manufacturing | 1,383 | 36 | $72,301 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 1,233 | 32 | $58,014 |
| Educational services | 766 | 20 | $40,659 |
| Construction | 755 | 126 | $61,306 |
| Administrative and support and waste management services | 666 | 41 | $56,142 |
Retail trade is the largest private sector at 1,681 jobs, 12.6 percent of covered employment.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
Warren County
How many businesses are in Warren County?
- Establishments, all industries882
- Employment at those establishments11,889
- Annual payroll$560.1 m
- Establishments per 1,000 residents21.2
These are counts of establishments physically operating in the county, not listings, so they are the supply side a feasibility study measures demand against. County Business Patterns counts private establishments with paid employees in March 2023, while the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages above counts every unemployment-insured employer, public ones included, as a 2024 annual average, so the two establishment and employment counts differ.
US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Warren County
Building permits in Warren County
- Housing units authorized by permit, 2024170
- Declared construction value permitted$55.1 m
- Single family units authorized170
- Multifamily units authorized0
- Multifamily share of units0.0 percent
- Average declared value per unit$323,848
- Units authorized per 1,000 households11.1
Single-family homes are 100.0 percent of units authorized, so the pipeline is predominantly single-family.
US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
Warren County
SBA loans in Warren County (7(a) and 504)
- 7(a) approvals recorded18
- 7(a) gross approval dollars$15.0 m
- Average 7(a) approval$832,011
- Median 7(a) approval$426,500
- Largest single approval$2,933,500
- Jobs reported supported, 7(a)156
- Jobs per approval8.7
- Distinct 7(a) lenders active15
- Distinct industries receiving approvals17
- Median 7(a) term120 months
- Share of loans on real estate terms, 240 months or longer27.8 percent
- Loans on real estate terms5
- Loans on working capital terms, 120 months or shorter13
- Franchise loans2
- Franchise share of approvals11.1 percent
- 504 approvals recorded8
- 504 gross approval dollars$3.6 m
- Average 504 approval$452,000
- Median 504 approval$261,000
- Distinct CDCs active3
- 504 jobs per approval8.5
- 504 jobs per million dollars approved18.8
- Most active CDCBusiness Finance Group, Inc. (5)
- Combined SBA approval dollars, 7(a) FY2020 to FY2026 and 504 FY2010 to FY2026$18.6 m
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30. US Small Business Administration, 504 FOIA release, FY2010 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Warren County
SBA loan default and charge-off rates in Warren County
Do SBA loans in Warren County get paid back?
- Loans with a final outcome recorded3
- Paid in full3
- Charged off0
- Status: Paid in full3
- Status: Exempt from disclosure15
Only 3 loans have reached a final outcome, fewer than the 30 a charge-off rate needs, so no rate is published.
Compare against the national and state SBA charge-off rates, computed the same way over resolved loans only.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Warren County
SBA lending by place in Warren County
- Borrower cities with recorded lending5
- Front Royal, approvals13
- Bentonville, approvals2
- Linden, approvals1
- Fredericksburg, approvals1
- Middletown, approvals1
| Borrower city | Approvals | Gross approval dollars |
|---|---|---|
| Front Royal | 13 | $12,491,200 |
| Bentonville | 2 | $85,000 |
| Linden | 1 | $2,000,000 |
| Fredericksburg | 1 | $300,000 |
| Middletown | 1 | $100,000 |
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Warren County
How large is Warren County?
- Land area213 sq mi
- Rank by land area among Virginia counties84th of 133
- Width, east to west20.6 mi
- Height, north to south19.1 mi
- Geographies sharing a boundary6
- Residents per square mile of land195
- Establishments per square mile4.14
US Census Bureau county boundary geometry, TIGER, adjacency computed from shared boundary vertices, TIGER county boundaries. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year. US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Warren County
Flood risk in Warren County
- Participation of the county's own NFIP community Warren County, unincorporated areasParticipating, community 510166
- Community Rating System class of the county's own communityClass 9
- Communities in the county in the NFIP Community Status Book2
- Of those, participating in the NFIP2
- NFIP participation rate100.0 percent
- Best Community Rating System class in the county A lower CRS class is a larger flood insurance premium discount.Class 9
- Communities carrying a CRS class1
- Radon levels in Warren County, EPA zone predicted average indoor radon screening level greater than 4 pCi/LZone 1
The county's own community in the status book, unincorporated Warren County (community 510166), participates in the National Flood Insurance Program and carries Community Rating System class 9, a flood insurance premium discount for policies written there. The EPA places Warren County in radon zone 1, a predicted average indoor radon screening level greater than 4 pCi/L. The zone is a screening prediction for the county and does not substitute for a test at an address. The best Community Rating System class among the county's communities is 9, which carries a flood insurance premium discount for policies written in that community. 100.0 percent of the county's listed communities participate in the National Flood Insurance Program, per Federal Emergency Management Agency, NFIP Community Status Book (OpenFEMA), as of 2026-09-26.
Federal Emergency Management Agency, NFIP Community Status Book (OpenFEMA), as of 2026-09-26. US EPA, Map of Radon Zones, county spreadsheet, 2024-05 publication, EPA 402/A-16/001.
Coverage
What this page does not hold.
Traffic counts, zoning and the flood zone at an address are not on this page; they resolve at the address in the platform. How this page was built →
Feasibility studies
When a Warren County site needs a document a lender will accept.
The same data layer behind this page is the one the studies are written from. A study for a Warren County site starts with the figures you are reading, carrying the same source and period into the credit file.
- Population, American Community Survey 2020-202441,531
- Households15,339
- Average household size2.71
- Median household income$84,682
- Median age40.5
Common questions
Warren County questions, answered from the record.
How many people live in Warren County, Virginia?
The Census Bureau estimates 42,461 residents on July 1, 2024 (US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024). The American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimate is 41,531, in 15,339 households, ranking 43rd of 133 Virginia counties. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Is Warren County's population growing?
The population has grown 4.27 percent since the 2020 census base of 40,724, to 42,461 on July 1, 2024. In 2024 there were 488 births against 490 deaths, with net migration of 481. Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
What is the median household income in Warren County?
$84,682. The median owner-occupied home is valued at $348,400, which is 4.1 times income, and median gross rent is $1,199 per month. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
How many businesses are in Warren County?
882 establishments, employing 11,889 people with an annual payroll of $560.1 m. These are establishments physically operating in the county, not listings. Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
What is employment by industry in Warren County?
Retail trade is the largest private sector at 1,681 jobs, 12.6 percent of covered employment. Covered employment averages 13,387 jobs at an average annual pay of $52,768, or $1,015 a week. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
How much SBA lending happens in Warren County?
18 7(a) approvals totaling $15.0 m since FY2020, across 15 lenders, with a median approval of $426,500, plus 8 504 approvals worth $3.6 m since FY2010. These are approvals recorded in the release, not loans disbursed.
How many building permits were issued in Warren County?
170 housing units were authorized by permit in 2024, with a declared construction value of $55.1 m. Multifamily was 0.0 percent of units. Source: US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
What is the radon zone for Warren County?
Zone 1, a predicted average indoor radon screening level greater than 4 pCi/L. Source: US EPA, Map of Radon Zones, county spreadsheet, 2024-05 publication, EPA 402/A-16/001.
Where do people moving to Warren County come from?
The largest single origin is Fairfax County, with 168 households. Arriving households report an average income of $71,722 against $64,696 for those leaving. Source: US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Are traffic counts available for Warren County on this page?
No. Annual average daily traffic resolves in the platform rather than in this dataset, so no AADT figure is printed here. It is a gap we know about rather than a figure we estimated.
Is zoning published for Warren County?
No. Nothing on this page presents parcel level zoning, and where a statutory framework applies it is marked as the statewide frame, to be confirmed locally.
Warren County
Cities and places in Warren.
6 Census places lie wholly or partly in Warren County. All 6 carry enough published place level data for a page of their own and are linked.
| Place | Type | Population | SBA 7(a) approvals, projects in this county | Lies in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Front Royal | town | 15,296 | 13 | Wholly in this county |
| Shenandoah Farms | CDP | 4,179 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
| Apple Mountain Lake | CDP | 1,671 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
| Chester Gap | CDP | 726 | None recorded | 9.1 percent here, 90.9 percent Rappahannock County |
| Skyland Estates | CDP | 620 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
| Shenandoah Shores | CDP | 611 | None recorded | Wholly in this county |
A further 5 of the county's 18 SBA 7(a) approvals are to borrowers in cities that match no Census place in Warren County, the largest being Bentonville (2), Linden (1), Fredericksburg (1). Those are postal cities, unincorporated areas and cities outside the county, so no place row claims them; they are counted in the county total above.
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